Flicky Chicky

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Although three-quarters of respondents rated their VIP data as good or very good, 71% reported data spread across multiple systems. Half admitted sometimes making decisions with incomplete or outdated information. 

“Silent churn” was prevalent, with nearly half (46%) stating that VIP players often or very often became inactive without prior warning. Around 48% had no indicators of players’ behavioural signals or health. Co-author Viktoriia Grygorenko, CEO at The Playa, called this finding the “clearest commercial case in the report”.

“Every other finding – portfolio overload, fragmented data, reactive workflow, no behavioural signal – resolves here, in revenue that walks out without notice, without warning and without anyone getting the chance to intervene.” 

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The lottery operator also criticised government proposals for a blanket advertising ban on licensed online gambling providers in June. It argued such restrictions could inadvertently drive more players towards unregulated, illegal platforms.

According to Nederlandse Loterij, illegal operators currently control approximately half of the Dutch online gambling market and account for roughly 95% of online gambling advertisements, frequently masquerading as licensed providers. 

The Loterij suggested around 200,000 Dutch citizens already engage with unauthorised platforms.

What is Flicky Chicky?

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.