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What the president didn’t address is the tax revenue from betting.

In 2025, Brazil collected almost BRL10 billion ($1.97 billion) in tax revenue from the licensed sector. In the first seven months of this year alone, BRL8.7 billion generated by the activity was delivered to public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service itself estimates that the sector should reach BRL16 billion in revenue during 2026.

Besides revenue collection, another concern is legal and economic. Companies have paid over BRL2.5 billion for licences since the sector’s regulation. Certainly, the end of the activity would lead to litigation to recover the amounts paid and compensation for investments made. Furthermore, the revenue from betting is already included in the Annual Budget Law and the Budget Guidelines Law, which define the priorities for federal government spending.

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“If I just give you one of our games or our jackpot engine and you just plug it in and leave it there to collect dust, you will come back and tell me in three months’ time it’s not working,” he says. “And I will say to you, ‘How have you invested in the product?’”

Splash Tech instead begins by asking what success means for that operator: more sign-ups, improved conversion, bet-slip monetisation, higher lifetime value, retention among a specific cohort or reactivation of churned players.

The objective is to create more relevant engagement moments across the player journey, from first interaction to repeat play, cross-sell and long-term retention.

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Neither bill has created a route to license private online betting. Egypt is pursuing an increasingly punitive enforcement model instead.

The three markets have reached the same point by different routes. Morocco has an incumbent defending its exclusivity through the courts, so far without success.

Tunisia has competing bills to prohibit or regulate online betting, neither of which has advanced. Egypt has relied on enforcement measures.